As the film industry gears up for a pivotal year, the opening weekend box office numbers indicate a promising start. With the competition heating up in the animated realm, Disney’s “Mufasa” and Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” continue to battle for box office supremacy in their third weekends. Early estimates suggest that “Mufasa” is poised to earn around $23 million to $24 million, while “Sonic 3” is projected to rake in approximately $20 million this weekend. This weekend marks a significant moment for “Mufasa,” which claims its first No. 1 victory, while “Sonic 3” dominated the first two weekends of its release.
The current weekend’s top five films are projected to gross nearly $78 million combined, a considerable increase of $22 million compared to the same weekend last year, which only totaled $56 million. This uptick in box office performance can be attributed to the absence of major new releases, allowing the current films to maintain strong audience engagement. Notably, “Mufasa” has performed impressively across 3,925 theaters, with projections suggesting it could reach a cumulative total of $168.7 million by the end of the weekend.
Conversely, “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” has secured its position in 3,746 theaters, nudging towards a total of $186.3 million. This number places it just $4.5 million shy of overtaking the previous installment, “Sonic the Hedgehog 2,” which grossed $190.8 million, making it the highest-grossing title in the SEGA franchise so far.
While animated films dominate the current box office, other noteworthy contenders like Focus Features’ “Nosferatu” maintain their presence. In its second weekend, this Robert Eggers film is expected to earn around $12.3 million, reflecting a modest drop of 43% from the previous weekend. This brings its total to approximately $68.5 million, a performance that comes despite the absence of Golden Globe nominations. However, the film is competing for four Critics’ Choice Awards, which may boost its visibility moving forward.
Another strong performer is Disney’s “Moana 2,” now on its sixth weekend, with a projected take of $12 million, marking a 37% decline. This sequel is nearing a remarkable milestone, with total earnings anticipated to reach $424.7 million as it aims for the magic $1 billion mark globally, edging ever closer to outpacing “Despicable Me 4.”
Meanwhile, “Wicked,” which has been captivating audiences since its debut, finds itself in the fourth position with an estimated $9.5 million this weekend. The film, holding strong after seven weekends, has garnered a total that approaches $450 million. With its recent release on PVOD in December, “Wicked” faces competition from the Golden Globes, where it has received nominations in four categories, including Best Musical/Comedy Feature.
In the independent film sector, Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown” shines with a projected tally of $7.5 million for its second weekend, down 36%. This film, directed by James Mangold, is set to become the highest-grossing title from Searchlight since the Disney-Fox merger, hoping to surpass the $38.5 million made by “The Menu.”
Interestingly, this weekend marks a distinct point in the film calendar, being one of the weekends in 2025 devoid of wide releases, thus providing a unique opportunity for the current films to shine without new competition.
Overall, the box office landscape is shaping up to be more vibrant than in previous years. The current success of films like “Mufasa” and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” exemplifies a robust start to 2025. As both new and existing titles continue to appeal to audiences, the industry remains hopeful for sustained growth in the coming weeks and months. The changing dynamics of the box office, influenced by competition and critical recognition, suggest that this year might foster an environment where films both big and small can thrive.